Ag Bull

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

We wrap up the week with a clear read on grains, livestock, crude oil, and the headlines that can tilt sentiment going into the weekend. We also lay out next week’s guest lineup, then end with a few offbeat notes that still connect to how we pay attention and think. 
• next week’s plan for guests and topics including markets, farm finances, fertilizer, fuels and a coffee company 
• daily flash sales versus the weekly export sales report and what that split may imply for demand 
• corn, soybean, and wheat futures performance with harvest pressure front and center 
• cattle and lean hog strength and what the curve looks like farther out 
• crude oil near highs and why weekends can add risk 
• election outlook notes and a reminder to participate 
• EPA renewable fuel standard reallocation proposal and industry reaction 
• tractor and combine sales declines and what that says about farm economics 
• potential new cattle and hog futures contracts from ICE 
• imported lamb share growth and producer concerns 
• USDA push on wolf management and livestock indemnity compensation 
• weather check, cold front and harvest delays 
• Noah Webster, dictionaries, Angela Lansbury, and a peacock fact 


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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

We run through a fast market morning that mixes stronger livestock trade with weaker grain action, then tie it to harvest weather and what it could mean for near-term volatility. We also flag a lighter-than-expected NOPA soybean crush, a cooler turn in retail ground beef prices, and the day’s key reports to watch. 
• Live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hogs rebounding after recent pressure 
• Corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat quotes after a rough overnight move 
• Dry forecast supporting a strong Midwest harvest window alongside frost and freeze alerts 
• Southwestern Oklahoma heavy rain and flooding concerns after extended dryness 
• NOPA soybean crush at 196.3 million bushels, below the trade estimate 
• September retail beef prices near $9.47 per pound and what that suggests about demand 
• Trump comments on Iran and how headlines can add risk to markets 
• Export sales and Commitment of Traders timing on the economic calendar 
If you have any suggestions, any comments that we should talk about on these shows for next week, make sure to leave those in the comments down below. 

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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

We get a real harvest update from Central Iowa farmer Ted Hamer, from rain delays and yield monitor surprises to the market realities showing up in local soybean basis. We also talk through the decisions that shape a farm beyond one season, including input cost pivots, red diesel savings, and the personal story behind a thoughtful succession plan. 
• harvest pace slowed by rain and the challenge of switching between seed beans and corn 
• corn and soybean yield results compared with APH plus what hybrids are showing 
• Iowa Corn Growers Association board role and how lobbying differs from promotion work 
• tiled ground, steady rainfall patterns, and why water timing matters as much as totals 
• soybean basis spikes, processor lines, and the hauling math when diesel stays high 
• red dyed diesel in semis for ag use and what the savings look like in practice 
• fertilizer cost strategy using chicken litter and pelleted hog manure plus nutrient analysis 
• succession planning driven by health reality and keeping the next generation invested 

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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

We track the morning’s ag markets, then zoom out to the weather shocks and macro headlines that are pushing price action. From Oklahoma flooding to inflation and stock market weakness, we connect the dots between what’s happening on the ground and what’s moving futures.
• Live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hog moves from the prior session 
• Live grain quotes for corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat 
• Oklahoma and Texas flooding impacts and what it could mean for wheat 
• Cold snap risk across the Plains and Corn Belt, then warmer temps returning 
• South America weather setup and why it matters for global supply 
• Conab report expectations and the impact of the release delay 
• Boxed beef forward sales share signaling softer forward buying 
• CPI and energy driven inflation pressures showing up everywhere 
• Stock market futures weakness and why outside markets spill into ag 
• Key economic calendar items including jobless claims, PPI, retail sales, and energy reports 


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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

We talk with Brian Gilbert, president of Ag Banking at First National Bank in Sioux Falls, about what farm finances look like from the lender side when yields vary, costs stay high, and renewal season gets tense. We swap practical prep tips, dig into land equity and longer loan terms, and lay out why relationships and succession planning matter when volatility is the new normal. 
• market recap and key moves in grains and livestock 
• crop progress highlights and a quick regional crop report from South Dakota 
• why some ag portfolios hold up better with cattle income in the mix 
• what Brian told Congress about community banks, credit access, and farm bill needs 
• delinquency signals, bankruptcy filings, and other early warnings in the broader economy 
• what to bring to a renewal meeting, including a real plan and true cost numbers 
• land improvements like tile, realistic payback periods, and stretched amortizations 
• off-balance sheet equity, owned land, and how farms weather cycles 
• building a strong advisory team and changing vendors when needed 
• risks and uses of nontraditional lenders versus a relationship lender 
• succession planning through small ownership steps and early responsibility 
• using FSA programs strategically for young and beginning farmers 


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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

We scan the markets, the weather, and the latest yield and trade signals that are shaping how ag feels right now. We also connect the dots to the wider economy, from beef import trends to rising consumer tech prices tied to AI demand. 
• live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hog closes as a quick sentiment check 
• corn, soybean, and wheat quotes alongside a note on routine market tools 
• flood watches and heavy rain slowing fieldwork, then a clearer dry window 
• state-by-state soybean yields, with standout numbers in Illinois and the Lower Mississippi region 
• beef imports rising and exports softening, with Australia leading the import story 
• ICE announcing potential livestock contracts and what that could mean for hedging 
• Apple hardware price increases linked to AI data center buildout and shifting revenue mix 
• key economic releases on the calendar, including CPI and the Fed Beige Book 

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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

We break down a red day across grains and livestock, then zoom in on the intraday whiplash that briefly lit up corn and soybeans before the close. Along the way, we connect export demand, biofuels policy noise, and on-farm risk decisions like storage, hedging, and cash flow heading deeper into harvest. 
• severe storm risk from North Texas into the Missouri Valley and why field timing matters 
• how export inspections shape the demand story for corn, soybeans, and wheat 
• settlements recap across corn, beans, wheat, feeders, fats, and hogs 
• what crush expansion and renewable diesel demand could mean for soybean oil and meal 
• why the Renewable Fuel Standard debate creates headline fatigue for producers 
• how to think about selling rallies or protecting rallies after a bearish USDA report 
• cattle market structure challenges when futures do not track cash cleanly 
• why stabilizing interest rates and credit conditions matter for marketing plans 
• what we’re watching next, including ag banking and farmer credit health 


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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

We run the board on grains and livestock, then zoom in on the October WASDE corn yield jump that pushes carryout sharply higher. We also track improving drought conditions in cattle country and react to a new AI safety warning that raises questions about how much control we really have over connected tech. 
• overnight futures check for cattle, hogs, corn, soybeans, and wheat 
• rain and flood-watch setup across the Plains and Corn Belt, plus the next harvest window 
• record-sized October carryout increase tied to higher corn yield in the WASDE numbers 
• drought map improvement in key cattle areas, with limits for winter feed timing 
• Anthropic warning on AI models spreading across home devices, and why safeguards matter 
I encourage you to go subscribe at AgBull.com. 

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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

A surprise USDA yield and stocks update slams corn futures, then the market starts looking past the headline and back toward demand, exports, and what fund positioning does next. We also connect grain price risk to fertilizer and fuel uncertainty, and we lay out a practical way to protect margins by treating inputs and outputs as one decision. 

• corn reaction to the USDA report and why the first move can be exaggerated by fund selling 
• the psychological impact of stocks-to-use levels and what “heavier” balance sheets mean into harvest 
• export inspections vs export sales and why a price break can unlock pent-up global demand 
• key corn demand watchpoints including Mexico and Spain plus EU supply issues 
• biofuels as a structural demand driver for corn, ethanol, and soybean oil 
• soybean outlook shaped by Brazil weather, Chinese buying, and global oilseed competition 
• soybean meal strength tied to slow harvest, crush capacity constraints, and tight near-term supply 
• strategy focus on margin opportunities using fertilizer-to-grain ratios rather than perfect market timing 
Get in touch with your preferred fertilizer retailer and your preferred diesel fuel retailer ASAP, and just have a conversation 

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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

We walk through a fast-moving morning where grain markets whip around the USDA WASDE report and weather turns into the next big risk. We also zoom out to pork exports and energy headlines that ripple into diesel costs and the day-to-day economics of agriculture. 
• live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hogs early market moves 
• plus 500 platform used to quote and trade markets 
• corn, soybean, and wheat futures quotes and what they suggest 
• Corn Belt rain, heat, and cooling trend that can disrupt harvest 
• WASDE report reaction and why opinions split on accuracy 
• Japan pork purchases, softer year-over-year exports, and what that means for herd rebuilding 
• Brent crude above 105, ceasefire doubts, and why energy volatility matters to ag 
• diesel as a core cost for farming and transport 
If you'd like to know what we're thinking, I encourage you to go on over to AgBull.com. $25 a month or $250 annually to know what's going on in the markets.

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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.