University researchers estimate 2025 Agricultural Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage support at just over $13.2 billion before a required 5.7% sequestration reduction. The analysis points to substantial payments this October, but the total is not a final payout tally: rice prices remained unfinished, and the calculations cannot fully capture farm-level payment yields, irrigated practices or individual payment limits.
The analysis, published October 13 and revised October 14, 2026, comes from Nick Paulson and Gary Schnitkey of the University of Illinois, Henrique Monaco of the University of Minnesota and Carl Zulauf of Ohio State University. They report that USDA had released final marketing-year average prices for nearly all eligible commodities and that the Farm Service Agency had finalized most 2025 program payments.
For producers, two distinctions matter: these are payments for the 2025 crop year, expected by the researchers by the end of October 2026, and published per-acre figures are estimates tied to base acres, not assurances of an individual farm’s check. A special provision also gives eligible 2025 participants the higher of ARC-CO or PLC, regardless of which program they selected.
How the estimate becomes a payment
To build their estimate, the researchers compared county-level Agricultural Risk Coverage, or ARC-CO, payment rates with Price Loss Coverage, or PLC, rates and selected the larger amount. For PLC, they multiplied each commodity’s per-bushel payment rate by the county’s average PLC payment yield. A farm’s own PLC payment yield can differ from that average.
They then applied the 85% payment factor. Their published per-base-acre estimates already incorporate that factor, but not the separate 5.7% sequestration reduction that will apply to producer payments. For national crop totals, they multiplied estimated rates by FSA’s 2025 enrolled base acres.
The practice categories introduce another limitation. The totals use rates for “all” and “non-irrigated” practices rather than separate irrigated-practice rates. The October 14 revision adjusted how county rates for irrigation practices were used, lowering the aggregate estimate, chiefly for corn. That limitation matters when comparing national estimates with payments tied to a particular practice.
The researchers cite a USDA estimate of $13.8 billion, compared with their own figure just above $13.2 billion. They identify several possible reasons for the difference, including farm payment yields, irrigated acres, unfinished rice prices and individual payment limits. They do not reconcile the two totals, and their estimate does not account for those individual limits.
Why 2025 support increased
The size of 2025 support reflects changes enacted in July 2025 through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. A July 15, 2025, explanation by Illinois researchers Schnitkey, Paulson and Jonathan Coppess, with Ohio State’s Zulauf, described higher statutory reference prices and broader ARC-CO protection. Those changes applied retroactively to the 2025 commodity year.
PLC responds when a crop’s marketing-year average price falls below its effective reference price. The law raised statutory reference prices and increased the share of historical prices used in the effective-price calculation from 85% to 88%. That calculation uses five completed crop years, discards the highest and lowest prices, and caps the result at 115% of the statutory reference price.
ARC-CO instead measures county revenue using the marketing-year average price and county yield. The law increased its guarantee from 86% to 90% of benchmark revenue and raised its maximum payment from 10% to 12% of benchmark revenue. Consequently, county yield performance helps determine whether ARC-CO pays more than PLC.
The October analysis illustrates that split. ARC-CO produced the higher payment in 61% of counties for corn and soybeans, while PLC paid more in 79% of counties for wheat. The researchers associated larger corn and soybean ARC-CO payments with counties where yields were relatively poor compared with their benchmarks.
Estimated average support was $51 per base acre for corn, $29 for soybeans and $47 for wheat, before sequestration. Together, those crops accounted for just over $9 billion of the estimated national total. Rice estimates ranged from $120 per base acre for medium-grain to $288 for temperate japonica and $344 for long-grain, but final rice marketing-year average prices were still pending.
The higher-payment rule ends with 2025
The automatic higher-payment provision does not continue into 2026. According to the October researchers, USDA had opened 2026 ARC and PLC enrollment with a December 11, 2026, decision deadline. Producers return to choosing a program for their base acres, while the revised payment parameters remain in place through the 2031 marketing year.
For checking published rates, the researchers point to FSA’s ARC and PLC data webpage, which includes final PLC rates and ARC-CO rates by county, crop and practice. Those distinctions remain important: a national average or county-average PLC calculation does not substitute for the payment yield and practice applicable to a farm.
